Study of Probabilities & Not Just Predication - Nifty Weekly 24 APR 2016

Long Term View - Bearish to Neutral

Medium Term View - Bullish

Short Term View -  Bullish

Weekly Chart of Nifty -

Weekly Wide Chart of Nifty  - From 1st week of March 2104 breakout from 6350, Nifty Rallied and topped out 9120 on 1st week of March 2015. Then, Downfall started and made low till now 6825 on 1st week of April 2016.

Price exactly took Support from 200 moving average and retraced towards upwards.

The Fall from 9120 top till now is properly Channelized which is the part of Correction. Current Counter move of this downfall is bigger than the previous counter moves and faster . But  this Counter move rallied with lower average volume create question in mind of its sustainability. Hence, Curious to watch breach of 7980 and 8340 resistance. Breach of 8340 faster will confirm the end of current downfall.

As per Elliott wave theory, Complete downmove is complex correction with WXY (2 standard correction adjoined with X1).  We will continued to mark current countermove as X2 until the breach of 8340 (as that was the level confirms the downmove ends).

Also, RSI is making the higher Swings whereas price couldn't breached its corresponding price swings which indicate weakness and potential to established the Negative reverse divergence. Price is to confirm the NRD.

As per Candlesticks chart, last week closing is formed Doji Candle. Hence it is important to watch follow weekly candle closing to confirm the further trend.  Doji considered as indecisive candle but experience says that if Doji comes after good price movement, then it indicates the maturity of the current trend and it may reversed in next 2-3 candle.

Hence it is important to watch if any reversal sign on coming days. Beware!!! currently there is no sign yet of reversal hence bullish trend will continue. i was just talking about the probability of negative sign on coming days.  Do Keep watch, if 7516 breached downside then only it will confirm the end of current counter move of downfall.

Options Pointers -

We will analyze the next month contracts as  only 4 days are left for current expiry. We revisit the Option pointer progress till the expiry. 

Next Month Contract Shows Option Range as 7500 - 8300 ( 800 Point Range), Currently having Open Interest Range between 15 - 17 Lacs  which is too low.... There are 7000 & 8000 also having similar Open interest . Need to observe the increase in Open Interest in each strike price than only we get clear picture.

PCR ration is 0.88

Max Pain will be at 7700

ACC - Well Establishment of bullish trend

TATA STEEL - Intraday Reversal from exactly Resistance Area

Today, wanted to share my good friend's (Prasad Kulkarni) trade strategy which he traded on Tata Steel future on Monday 28 Mar 2016 and he profited more than Rs.26000/- in a single trade in intraday.

Let us analyse its strategy more in details -

Find out the Resistance Area - 

On Daily Chart of Tata Steel, Price is sideways to bullish since Oct 2015. This was just correction rally to previous downfall.

So by using the Fibonacci Price Cluster, 310 -320 is the area identified most probable resistance zone where reaction can come.

Identify the Reversal Sign near resistance zone-

Price is tested this resistance zone on 22 & 23 March, but couldn't identified the reversal sign or pattern rather price was extremely bullish on that days.
After a long holidays(4 days), On 28 Mar, Long Black body spotted on 15 min chart and same time Observed the negative divergence to RSI & Volume on Hourly chart.

Based on this, He didn't waste a time to short Tata steel at 314 with day high as stop. This way he pocketed the highest intraday gain. 

On the same day, There are more number short entries was possible as per below.
* Trendline Breakout
* Lower low sequence
* Moving Avg crossover

All this works, but need method & experience to trade at right time. Thanks.

Thanks to Prasad for allowing me to share his simple strategy on my blog. Most of the time, Traders follow complicated things but overlook simplicity.

Intraday Trade - 22 Mar 2016 - BHEL future

Entry Setup -

Trail STOP Loss triggered  and immediately moved upwards as per expectation -

BHEL - Head & Shoulder Breakout....sustained and moving upward

TATA STEEL - Rally is at matured stage for now

Price is moving upwards in wedge pattern with negative divergence with RSI and Volume indicate upmove rally is in matured stage...
Wait for reversal pattern at resistance area of 310-315...

Learning - Reviewing old Trade in Ambuja Cement - Missed Big profit Potential

I have started to keep habit of reviewing my own trade. It helps to understand whether your trade was right or wrong after looking out further price movement. 

Today I am sharing my own trade in Ambuja Cement which took on last Monday 14 Mar 2016 and Exited on 15 Mar 2016 as per the below details which was captured in screenshots. 

I was happy that day as Trade have been squared off the position with Profit of 2120/- 

But after reviewing the trade today, I realized my weakness which i need to improve in the future trade. Stock raised from my buying level 204.10 to 231.10 in just 4 trading session. Stop loss which was set during the entry is not hit at all till now. 
So, I have recorded the mistakes and learning in the charts as below. 

Do share your comment and feedback.

Happy Trading and Happy Investing!!!

Yogi