Nifty Monthly Weekly Daily Analysis - 1 May 2016

Monthly View - Bullish

Weekly View - Bearish to Neutral

Daily View -  Bullish

Monthly Chart of Nifty -

Higher High Formation on Monthly Chart.

Consecutive 2 month Close is on upside which was happened first time after Jan 2015

RSI retracted exactly after testing 40 and now sustaining above 50 on monthly scale.

Volume average is significantly increasing comparing from last 4 years since 2012.

Considering all these aspects, Monthly Charts is very much bullish.

(Previous Update - From 1st week of March 2104 breakout from 6350, Nifty Rallied and topped out 9120 on 1st week of March 2015. Then, Downfall started and made low till now 6825 on 1st week of April 2016).

Weekly Chart of Nifty -

Outside bar for last week of Apr indicate indecisiveness, Outside bar is actually Continuous trend pattern, Hence Next Week Bar is needed to watch to confirm the trend ahead..

Since is indecisive bar, The high probability of last uptrend will continue further until there additional negative signal....

As per Fibonacci study, Currently Price tested  and hovering  near 78.6% level (strong resistance) of previous down swings.  

If Price is sustained and breach of this 8000 level , then 8350 target will get achieved easily..

(Previous Update - The Fall from 9120 top till now is properly Channelized which is the part of Correction. Current Counter move of this downfall is bigger than the previous countermoves and faster . But  this Counter move rallied with lower average volume create question in mind of its sustainability. Hence, Curious to watch breach of 7980 and 8340 resistance. Breach of 8340 faster will confirm the end of current downfall).

As of now there is no validity or confirmation NRD (Negative Reverse Divergence).

(Previous Update -As per Elliott wave theory, Complete downmove is complex correction with WXY (2 standard correction adjoined with X1).  We will continued to mark current countermove as X2 until the breach of 8340 (as that was the level confirms the downmove ends).

Also, RSI is making the higher Swings whereas price couldn't breached its corresponding price swings which indicate weakness and potential to established the Negative reverse divergence. Price is to confirm the NRD)

 As per Candlesticks chart, The current week candle looks like doji with bigger body compared to earlier week candle. This indicate the tough fight between Bulls and bears at this resistance level.

Coming week candle will clear the who will wins from this battle....

(Previous Update - As per Candlesticks chart, last week closing is formed Doji Candle. Hence it is important to watch follow weekly candle closing to confirm the further trend.  Doji considered as indecisive candle but experience says that if Doji comes after good price movement, then it indicates the maturity of the current trend and it may reversed in next 2-3 candle.

Hence it is important to watch if any reversal sign on coming days. Beware!!! currently there is no sign yet of reversal hence bullish trend will continue. i was just talking about the probability of negative sign on coming days.  Do Keep watch, if 7516 breached downside then only it will confirm the end of current countermove of downfall)

Daily Chart of Nifty -

As per Daily Chart, Price is hovering at 200 SMA and tested 78.6% of Previous downswing.

Price is continuous to be bullish and in higher top formation.

There was minor swing breach downside but price is still above the support trend line.

As per Elliot wave, Price is in "2nd or b" inner wave of C wave... End of these inner wave, Price will again move further upward as "3rd or c" inner wave of C.

Breach of 7515 & 7400, will consider end of this uptrend, till that time- Price will be in Bullish grips only...

Options Pointers -

May Month Contract shows Option Range as 7700 - 8200 ( 500 Point Range), Currently 7700 Put having Open Interest 42 Lacs  & 8200 Call having open Interest of 40 Lacs .... Also, we will keep an eye on 7000 put OI which is aroung 34.5 lacs...

PCR ration is around 0.98  - indicates Sideways price might be possible for in 1st week of may.

Max Pain is observed around  7800 level.

(Previous Update - Next Month Contract Shows Option Range as 7500 - 8300 ( 800 Point Range), Currently having Open Interest Range between 15 - 17 Lacs  which is too low.... There are 7000 & 8000 also having similar Open interest . Need to observe the increase in Open Interest in each strike price than only we get clear picture.

PCR ration is 0.88

Max Pain will be at 7700)