Monthly View - Bullish
Weekly View - Neutral
Daily View - Bearish
Weekly Chart of Nifty -
1st Week of
May Candle or Bar given the negative confirmation by forming 1st lower low
formation and this negative sign was exactly from the 78.6% level which have
more significance. Hence, we can evaluate that 8000 will be the crucial
resistance for further....
(Last week comment - Outside bar for last week
of Apr indicate indecisiveness, Outside bar is actually Continuous trend
pattern, Hence Next Week Bar is needed to watch to confirm the trend ahead.. Since
is indecisive bar, The high probability of last uptrend will continue further
until there additional negative signal....As per Fibonacci study, Currently
Price tested and hovering near 78.6% level (strong resistance) of previous
down swings. If Price is sustained and
breach of this 8000 level , then 8350 target will get achieved easily..).
On downside,
there was strong resistance at 7500 & 7400... Hence, 7400 - 8000 is the
range where market might remain sideways and consolidating for few days or
weeks... Hence, Breach of this range will confirm the further trending move.
AS per Neo
wave, we will keep "X2" wave as question as it will get confirm only
if this complete upmove(6825 - 7992) retraced faster in time which is rare
possibility as of now.
Small NRD
trendline has been removed as price breached its previous minor swing high
7979.30 and made top of 7992.
Long NRD is
possible but it will get confirm only after breach of 7400 level, hence it is
still in question.
(Last week
comment - As of now there is no validity or confirmation NRD (Negative Reverse
Divergence). As per Elliott wave theory, Complete downmove is complex
correction with WXY (2 standard correction adjoined with X1). We will continued to mark current countermove
as X2 until the breach of 8340 (as that was the level confirms the downmove
ends).
Also, RSI
is making the higher Swings whereas price couldn't breached its corresponding
price swings which indicate weakness and potential to established the Negative
reverse divergence. Price is to confirm the NRD)
As per Candlesticks chart, The Last week
candle formed lower low which confirms bears wins the battle as of now and hence
Bulls will get in power only after breach of 8000. The last week candle forms
with lower volume as per the previous volume bar which indicates initial days
of the next week will be positive. Yes, it means the possibility of minor
pullback on Monday or Tuesday. this is
will give the opportunity to buyer to exit their bulls positions as nifty will
going to remain sideways to negative for few days or week.
(Last week
Comment - As per Candlesticks chart, The
current week candle looks like doji with bigger body compared to earlier week
candle. This indicate the tough fight between Bulls and bears at this
resistance level. Coming week candle
will clear the who will wins from this battle.... )
Daily Chart of Nifty -
* Price
closed below 200SMA, Trendline support broken, Lower low formation confirms
that Daily trend becomes bearish.
* Last daily candle suggest that Hammer at
bottom. if High of this candle broken on Monday then minor pullback towards 7850
is possible
* As per
Elliot wave, Price is in the wave "a" and if pullback confirm then
"b" wave can start which will be tedious to trade.
* Hence ,
next week will be very difficult for Positional trader.
*
"c" can be tradable for downside after end of "b" wave,
hence sell on rise is the market in simple term.
* Probable
path shown in the chart.
(Last week
Comment -
As per
Daily Chart, Price is hovering at 200 SMA and tested 78.6% of Previous
downswing.
Price is
continuous to be bullish and in higher top formation.
There was
minor swing breach downside but price is still above the support trend line.
As per
Elliot wave, Price is in "2nd or b" inner wave of C wave... End of
these inner wave, Price will again move further upward as "3rd or c"
inner wave of C.
Breach of
7515 & 7400, will consider end of this uptrend, till that time- Price will
be in Bullish grips only...)
Options Pointers -
Option Contract
shows Range as 7700 - 8000 ( 300 Point - Range squeeze), Currently 7700 Put
having Open Interest 44.5 Lacs & 8000
Call having huge open Interest of 65.85 Lacs .... Also, we will keep an eye on
7000 put OI which was increased to 40.38 Lacs from 34.5 lacs...
PCR ration
is around 0.73 - indicates oversold market as per Option OI.
Pullback is must in next week.
Short
buildup in 7700PE and 8000CE will shows sideway possibility in coming week.
Hence pullback will temporary or for bull trap purpose.
Max Pain is
observed at same 7800 level.
(Last week
Comment -May Month Contract shows Option Range as 7700 - 8200 ( 500 Point
Range), Currently 7700 Put having Open Interest 42 Lacs & 8200 Call having open Interest of 40
Lacs .... Also, we will keep an eye on 7000 put OI which is aroung 34.5 lacs...
PCR ration is around 0.98 - indicates
Sideways price might be possible for in 1st week of may.Max Pain is observed
around 7800 level.)
Nifty Breadth Chart -
This is one
more indicator which show the Breadth of the Nifty Stocks means Percentage of
the stocks in Nifty index are in bullish or bearish trend.
Indicator Oscillate
between 0- 100% same like RSI. Below 25%
is oversold & above 75% is Overbought.
Nifty
Breadth is
30% - 6
May
22% - 5 May
26% - 4 May
It indicates
8% of Nifty stocks turns to Positive from Negative trend for short term and
turning from oversold territory which is positive sign which support our
pullback claim for short term...
