JYOTHY LABORATORIES LIMITED Date: 18 July 2015
CMP 306.45
Fundamental
Snaps -
Sector - FMCG, Industry -
Cosmetics & Toiletries
6M Average Volume: 171,518
|
P/B: 7.38
|
PE: 45.73
|
52-Week Range: 175.20 - 314.90
|
Dividend Yield: 1.31%
|
Market CAP: 5539.32
|
TTM EPS: 6.69
|
Book Value: 41.48
|
Face Value: 1
|
Detailed
Technical Analysis -
Long Term View - Bullish
Medium Term View - Sideways
Short Term View - Bullish
Monthly Chart
-
v Very Nice Higher High & Higher Low price structure on
Monthly Chart
v Long Term Breakout observed in Aug 2012, till now it
continue to maintain the bullish structure
v 3rd Hidden Positive Divergence recently on May Month which
is extreme bullish view for Longer term
v Must have this stock in the portfolio for longer term.
v Current July Month is ongoing and stock price is near at
Resistance level
v Accumulate
this at every fall with Stop loss of 235
Weekly
Chart -
v On weekly chart, Circled area located was the Smart money
entry area. Hidden Divergence indicates the Smart money did investment.
v What is Hidden Positive Divergence ( few also called as
False Divergence) -
o Hidden Divergence is opposite of simple Positive Divergence.
So let's understand simple divergence.
o When price breaks the last swing low (Lower Low formation)
but RSI didn't break its last swing low (Higher Low Formation) is called positive
Divergence.
o So Hidden Positive Divergence is exactly opposite of Simple
divergence. When Price makes higher low (didn't break previous swing low) and
RSI made higher high formation (Breaks its previous low) is called Hidden Positive
Divergence.
v As per Elliott wave, Complete upmove is in the ascending
channel and looks like complex correction.
v Complex correction will have 2 or 3 complex patterns and
hence marking them as ABC - X - ABC - X -ABC
v Currently price is in the 2nd complex pattern and Wave 'B'
is ongoing.
v if last high of 314.90 breaks in next 3 weeks then we can
consider Wave 'B' is completed and Currently price is in Wave 'c'
v Currently price is at 306.45, hence high possibility that
price will breach last high in coming days.
v So, There is high probability that price is in the C wave.
v But Before that lets drill down more details of ongoing Wave 'B' in daily chart
below.
Daily
Chart -
v On Daily Chart, Price looks to be near to resistance and on
verge to breakout its Resistance.
v RSI is above 60.
v we have missed the ideal Entry where 235 is marked or RSI 40
level and smart money entry area.
v Anyhow what's now - we will try to figure out -
v as per Elliott wave, Wave is B is ongoing on Higher Degree
and Internal of B is either lat or Complex pattern.
v Wave 'w-x-y' is completed as of now and currently it is
either 'x' wave of 'B' or C wave of Higher degree. This will after few days.
v Currently, Volume is not supporting to the last leg of
upside at all.
v If breakout happen above 315 with Higher volume then it
confirms then Wave C is ongoing.
v The last leg downside or wave 'y' has took 62 days and hence
breakout has to happen before 10th August 2015, then only it will confirms that
Wave 'B' is completed and Wave 'C' is ongoing.
v If low volume and breakout not sustain then it will indicate
that another last leg downside is pending as 'z' wave of wave 'B'.
Finally, My Take would be -
If we don't want to miss this rally (or future rally) and
do the step wise investment with prudent money management rules as mentioned
below-
1) On breakout with higer volume - Invest 1/3 of the
capital above 315 1-1)
If breakout not sustained then add 1/3 more near 320-325 level 1-2)
and last 1/3 amount on retest level of 315 again.
ORIf breakout and breakout not sustained
2) add second 1/3 amount at level 290-260 level
3) third 1/3 amount again again on next breakout 315
level
Then Hold complete amount for target of C wave -
ü 1st target is 365
ü 2nd target will be 444
ü with Stop Loss 235
Happy Investing!!!
Yogi :-)
