Observation on RSI and Nifty Long term Chart - Update 2

Observation on RSI and Nifty Long term Chart - Update 2

Please refer the original 1st thread -

RSI and Nifty Weekly Chart - Update 1

 

Nifty Update - 29th August

Nifty Observation: -

Tomarrow is the expiry fot the August month. Today as well good move on downside But we have already removed all our short yeterday with good profit, so no worries.

Today I could observed the +ve Divergence with price on RSI, MSCD and Stocksticks Oscillator which tell me that tomarrow will be minor correction on upside and then move down near to the todays low as per EW label seen in the following chart.

So let us watch tomarrow move before going for any predication. But if nifty price is moving down and breaks the todays low @5288(LOG) then it could be the last wave count as a 5 wave. So it might be the good time to look for the + ve divegence on the Hourly chart to firm on our view that Nifty will correct the complete down rally from 5458 to tomarrows low. This correction in the form of ABC pattern on upside. So Lets Wait and Watch!!!

 

Covered all Positional Short calls today- Details.

Squared Off Exiting Position NF @5325 and Squared off 5400 put @ 78

Just now ... Squared off  Exiting Position NF @5325 and Squared off  5400 put @ 78 Big profit today ... Details later ....

EURUSD 23 Aug_Hourly - On the Right Track

Nifty Daily View - Support Tendline getting weaken

Nifty Daily View - Support Tendline getting weaken.

 

Observation on RSI and Nifty Long term Chart

Long Leg Doji on Daily Chart of the NIFTY

Long Leg Doji found on Daily Chart of the NIFTY which could be result the reversal of the last uptrend and will start down rally from tomorrow. This is valid only if price will not break the top if the Doji which was 5417(per LOG Scale Chart).

Details of the Doji Candle stick Pattern:

The Doji is a powerful Candlestick formation, signifying indecision between bulls and bears. A Doji is quite often found at the bottom and top of trends and thus is considered as a sign of possible reversal of price direction, but the Doji can be viewed as a continuation pattern as well.

A Doji is formed when the opening price and the closing price are equal. A long-legged Doji, often called a "Rickshaw Man" is the same as a Doji, except the upper and lower shadows are much longer than the regular Doji formation.

The creation of the Doji pattern illustrates why the Doji represents such indecision. After the open, bulls push prices higher only for prices to be rejected and pushed lower by the bears. However, bears are unable to keep prices lower, and bulls then push prices back to the opening price.

Of course, a Doji could be formed by prices moving lower first and then higher second, nevertheless, either way, the market closes back where the day started.

In a Doji pattern, the market explores its options both upward and downward, but cannot commit either way. After a long uptrend, this indecision manifest by the Doji could be viewed as a time to exit one's position, or at least scale back. Similarly, after a long downtrend, like the one shown above of General Electric stock, reducing one's position size or exiting completely could be an intelligent move.
It is important to emphasize that the Doji pattern does not mean reversal, it means indecision. Doji's are often found during periods of resting after a significant move higher or lower; the market, after resting, then continues on its way. Nevertheless, a Doji pattern is a great sign that a prior trend is losing its strength, and taking some profits might be well advised.

Nifty Weekly Update for 21 Aug 2012

Nifty Weekly Update for 21 Aug 2012:

Why I am preferring the Bearish view on Nifty?

*             As per EWP, Nifty had completed the 5th wave with 5 internal wave @5417(as per LOG CHART), If we consider bearish count then also we have completed the a-b-c(w)-(x)-a-b-c(y) @5417 pattern and Thereafter price started in the down move.   (only concerned here is that another a-b-c  complex pattern can be in effect as Z wave).

*             As per Daily Chart, Price breaks the Upmove Channel and heading down, which result the weakness in the current upmove.

*             As per the Candlestick Pattern, Long Leg Doji seen on the daily chart which act as reversal of the last trend (uptrend).

*             RSI and MACD indicator showing the negative divergence which looks weakness. Price is making new high but Indicator is not breaking its previous high.

*             Stochastic Oscillator shown sell signal on overbought zone and heading lower 80%.

If nifty will go down (bearish view) then what could be the targets for the downmove?

There could be many scenario can happen like diagonal pattern, contracting triangle,  or 5 wave impulsive down move.  Currently i will consider the 5 wave downmove if price will breaks 5181 and heading lower which is lower trendline support.

We will look for this as how the prices unfold further.

If tomorrow, prices are heading upward and breaks the top 5419 then still this view is valid till 5440 and this was the major hurdle for the nifty. I will change this view only after the price crosses 5440/5450 and moving higher.

Happy Trading !!!


S&P500 Index will start downmove as C wave

Took Short Position in Nifty Future @5419.

Took Short Position in Nifty Future @5419. SL - 5450 1st Tgt - 5324 (SureShot), 2nd Tgt - 5275, 3rd Tgt - 5170.   

Brought 5400PE Nifty Just Now

Brought 5400PE Nifty @42.50 Just Now. Target and SL later ... Strong Call.

EURUSD_14_Aug_Hourly

See How we are on the right track.... Let us watch further .....

Exit the Nifty Short position today @5332

Booked the short position profit today @5332. Total Profit 33 Points.
Also, Square off the Buy put call @58. Total Profit 7 points.
Very difficult to trade... Market is in the range bound...

 Lets wait for the next entry.

EURUSD_09Aug_Hourly

See How EURUSD is moving as per our last predictions..... 1st Target achieved but shortfall to 2nd target and starting retracement for the last up rally.
Then in the downmove exactly took the 1st support and now in the way to take 2nd support.
After taking the 2nd support @1.2271, we expect that it will start his upmove again which was the strong 3of3. Lets us watch. All the Best.

Took Nifty Short Position:

On Daily Chart, Nifty Future broke the yesterday low of 5345.5 and made new low @5332, and Close @ 5365. So as per bias theory, sentiment is negative.

So, as per the yesterday's and todays observation, I took the short position @5362. Similarly, Took Buy position in Put Option 5300 @50.90

All the Best!!!

Update 08 Aug:

Today Nifty is again moved up and made high 5393.55 but couldn't sustain and came down and close @5357.

Observation : -
On daily Chart, It showing the bearish candle stick pattern as Hammer at the top which was usually reversal point of the upmove rally.
Similarly as yesterdays said, there was strong -ve divergence shown in the RSI and MACD indicator.

This predicts to me that Nifty will start move down from here.. Let us watch ...

Update : Stay Short on Nifty

I felt that it was the flase breakout on upside. Nity future have broken the last high of 5358 and made new high as 5362 as per LOG chart.
On daily Chart, even if the Nifty break last top but RSI indicator is not break its last top, Predicts as Strong Negative divergence.
So, I still strongly feel that Nifty will start a move to downside as "C" as per the chart shown below.
Major Support Zone - 5164. If this support is not break then Our view will not be so bearish and we have to change the count. Let us watch !!!

Nifty Strong Short Call 08 Aug - Hourly

CMP Nifty future is 5334. Short Nifty here with 5350 as SL, Target will be 5270 (Immediate Intraday), Positional Target will be below 5000.

Study as below - Let us see How Waves unflod in the coming days...

EURUSD_03Aug_Hourly